Originally posted by Game Theory-
Quote:
Scenario #1
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Horse A: 100
Horse B: 98
Horse C: 85
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Such scenarios often turn out to be better from a betting perspective. The public always tends to overbet the more obvious situations (horse with higher apparent advantage) and tends to ignore the less obvious (horse with smaller apparent advantage.)
It is this overreaction to what a horse looks like on paper that makes this game so fascinating- and one that can be beaten in the first place.
That said, I have had success factoring things into my own models that tend to cause the public to look the other way (high morning line odds/low speed fig last race/loss in stretch last race/out of money finish last race, etc. The result is that I tend to get a lower win percentage than most other players (12%-16%) with my own best plays- but I get a win mutuel that averages about $21.00 each time that I am right.