Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
Speed figures are like weather forecast models. In general, they are not too far off the mark in the near term but occasionally are way off.
One problem with SA that day is there was only one other dirt route that day and it was the Oaks. Have fun putting together figures using comps from a stakes restricted to fillies and a couple sprints. The less data going into your model, the less accurate it is likely to be. While I do think SA is running a little slower this year I see Unique Bella ran a 6F fraction in 1:10.4 at the track this year and won the race. That was two seconds faster than Justify's plodding to the pole. Maybe he's just playing like American Pharoah did in the rebel but I doubt it against a horse like Bolt.
Further, Brisnet gave trounced Instilled Regard a 102 figure. He finished 11 lengths back in the 19th slowest Santa Anita Derby in history and achieved the same figure as American Pharoah's 11th fastest Arkansas Derby in history. Additionally, AP appeared to gear down toward the finish. I'm sorry, but Instilled Regard did not run even remotely as good as American Pharoah. As such, I'm completely tossing most speed figures from the race. Equibase scored the finish as par which makes the most sense to me. Like I said before, par in the Santa Anita is often still plenty good to contend in Kentucky but perhaps sets more realistic expectations.
|
Yeah I think relying heavily on numbers to handicap this years derby regardless of which set you decide to use ( beyers, brisnet or Equibase etc. ) is a big mistake.
Justify gets a 107 beyer for winning a slow Santa Anita derby where he got a easy pace scenario to work with and Good Magic gets a 95 beyer after a solid win in the Bluegrass and having to navigate a tough outside post.
Jerry Bailey ( one of the greatest jockeys ever and respected long time race analyst ) and Randy Moss and Laffit Pincay lll ( both also highly respected race analysts ) said Good Magic’s win in the Bluegrass was solid and showed he’s back in top form and they said Justify performance in the SA derby left them wondering if Baffert will even run Justify in the KY Derby, yet going off Beyer numbers you would have thought Justify ran the superior race.
