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Old 02-25-2004, 12:49 AM   #42
Jeff P
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Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
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Quote:
I have a database of many factors.
What would you suggest I do to start a regression study?
Look at single factors, combinations?
I could use Excel to plot finsh positions or beaten lengths of horses with certain factors by rank, look for postivie correlation?
Is there a better program out there to run multiple studies?
WhatI do now is to querry Access for things like

Running Style F or E
Qirin speed points >6
F1 velocity rank 1
EP velocity rank <3

Then figure out impact values and roi for the results.
Tom,

Exactly. What you end up doing is running queries trying to spot combinations of things that work. But be prepared- very little of what you test actually does work. And a lot of what works seems contrary to what SHOULD work. Horses that look good on paper attract money at the windows. The trick, in my opinion, is to isolate things that do two things: 1. Cause bettors to run the other way when they are present, And 2. Don't adversely affect a horse's true chances of winning too much.
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