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Derby Race Shape
There are lots of variables in this derby. The dominant one in this race: Does Fla Derby and Breeders Juvy Fierceness show up, or will the Holy Bull Fierceness show up. For me Fierceness "A" race isn't a wager I'm interested in. I know some bettors will single him on top and look for value underneath, but that's not my game. The Derby with Holy Bull race shape throws the race to the long shot even runners IMOP. Yes we watched Sierra Leon pass the field in marginally fast races, but maybe those horses on the pace just gave it up? So that will have me put a line through Track Phantom and Just a Touch. As I look deeper into the race I might find some more alternatives, but the horse on my radar right now is Encino. Any capper with a low opinion of Turfway will overlook him thinking he didn't beat anybody in the Lexington. This might be true, but the race shape was similar and he wasn't getting passed in the stretch. You also have to know I have made a lot of bank on runners like Encino coming from Tapeta to dirt. Runners like this still get an extra 10 to 20 dollars on the dollar in the odds pool. Just look at Epic Ride in the Bluegrass.
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