Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I wonder how many more people are going to start betting to Win now?
My guess is very few people are going to change anything they are doing other than the computer guys.
Does this impact Place and Show also?
I may revisit the Place pool to see what’s going on in there now because late money used to correct that pool also. IMO, the Place pool is a bad idea in general, but it tends to be less efficient and sometimes there are gifts to be had. Maybe there will more of them.
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Not to get too far off topic , but it's related and somewhat interesting.
Feel free to disagree and make your case Class.
Tough for you or I to find any accidental inefficiencies.
Maybe we have an edge and our value opinion makes some inefficient pools clear to us.
But as far as being able to look at a place pool, and say
is inefficient because it should have $500 more in the place pool, ... I can say with certainty that I'm almost always some combination of not good enough to tell that it's accidental/random, not late enough in betting vs late money corrections, and/or not worth enough value.
Once in rare a while a race later in the card has a bad Morning Line on a horse that hasn't been so touted as to make the ml meaningless, and if you had a good p3 or whatever, already (or wanted to go super lean and string some chalk that way) you could build a p3 or p4 or p5 to single the bad ml horse to buy a +value ticket because of inefficient betting from public who bets based on ml odds.
Other than that, those 3 adverse models (not good enough/not late enough/not worth my time) kick my butt.
I need to handicap, have opinions and see the various pools and tote odds to make value plays where I have significant difference of opinion in a market that is behaving about as expected.
the odds-correction stuff is best left to the computers and or specialists, or if you have 'ALL' to the last leg of a life-changing score and deposit a few bucks to hedge your outcomes a bit.
