Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
I agree, at least as far as dirt starts go. He's lost ground in the stretch in each of his last 3 starts. Can't see him turning it around.
Out of the JC Gold Cup, Thunder Snow rates more of a chance and will be making his 3rd start off a layoff. Figures to return to his pace setting/pressing style which should help his cause.
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His improving figures and performances indicate he is turning it around. It would have taken Secretariat to not lose ground in the JCGC after attending that toxic pace. The winner, Discreet Lover, benefited even more from the pace by laying even further off it.You can't just look at the stretch run in a vacuum in isolation of what preceded it. The further you are from a nuclear blast, the better your chances of surviving it.
Put a line through Mendelssohn's Derby non-race and he is also on his 3rd race off the lay-off.
The reason Thunder Snow ran as well as he did in the JVGC was that he lay back off that pace and closed on horses that had run killer sprint fractions. Had he played the setter/presser role he would have tired badly - much worse than Mendy or Diversify. Just look at the pace analysis. Having said that, I like his chances too. He showed he could adapt to whatever pace he was facing and, like Mendy, is cycling up to a top figure.
