Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Mendy's best figure in Dubai was bias aided.
He seems to be improving, but imo it will be a tough task to go from where he is now to setting or stalking the pace in a bigger tougher field than the Gold Cup and being able to keep going when better closers than Discreet Lover are coming at him late. Maybe if they can get him to relax further off it and finish he'd do better, but I don't think I like him even though I agree he's moving forward.
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Agreed that his Dubai figure may have been rail bias aided but so may have some of the figures of the other contenders. The magnitude of his victory and the huge figure indicate there may have been more than a bias involved so I wouldn't totally disregard it off hand.
I doubt he will have to contend with as fierce a pace as in the JCGC and his TFUS figure was just as good as the winner and even cj has agreed that at 10 furlongs his figures, even when pace adjusted underrate the best performances, so I consider his JCGC race as good as a win against top competition. At the very least it sets him up perfectly for a big BC Classic.
I agree that he must relax and lay off the pace, if it's hot, however the defection of Diversity, whose suicidal early pace was both horses' undoing in the JCGC, improve his chances tremendously.
Of course, as I've said, he is not my pick yet as I want to take another long hard look at some of the other contenders, particularly Mind Your Biscuits and Accelerate. However, I think Mendy is flying a bit under the radar and being written off a bit too quickly by many and will likely outrun his odds.
