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Originally Posted by TEJAS KIDD
For the past several years I've shown a negative ROI in both WP and Superfecta wagering and a positive ROI in both Exacta and Trifecta wagering. Some would say, "Why don't you stop playing WP and Superfectas to increase your overall profit ratio?"
I say "NO"
The reason I won't stop is because even though not profitable, the WP and Superfectas keep my psyche in a positive state. Many times these wagers (especially the WP) are meant as saver (hedge) wagers just in case I am not correct about my exacta/tri/super combinations. The Superfectas, I play on a much smaller scale and many times I hit for a big number even when my top choices finish in the bottom lines. Basically, the whole thing works together to keep my churn churning and my mentality in the right frame of mind.
If I were to only play the exactas/trifectas, there would a higher ROI overall, but there would also be more losing streaks, which in turn, can effect my confidence and therefore decrease my wagering handle which could adversely effect my overall profit in the game. I'd rather have 10% of 5X than 25% of X.
For example last night, I spent the night at the track. I hit only 1 trifecta and only 1 exacta on the 9 race card. It would've been a terrible night had I not played win bets. I walked out hitting 5 winners and survived a terrible evening of exotic wagering. I could have ended the weekend on a 2 day losing streak while lacking confidence for the beginning of next week's races but instead I walked out a winner knowing that I'll be firing away come next Wednesday.
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What you are doing has validity. Not only is good for your mental state, but it also reduces your probability of ruin. That is because of the importance of reducing the variance of your net gain. And by using your approach, although your ROI may be reduced, your net gain increases, and your probability of ruin decreases. That is NOT a bad combination.
Mike
