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[classhandicapper]

IMO, epidemiologists and medical doctors (and idiot media people) are spending so much time debating what should be happening and making bad predictions based on their own theories they aren't paying enough attention to the what actually "is" happening.

The pattern is similar all over the world.

Once the virus breaks out in an area there is exponential growth in cases until about 10% (give or take) of the population is infected. Then the growth rate starts to decline and flatten. Then as more people get infected the new cases start declining (Texas and Florida are recent examples). Once you get into the 20%-30% range in the area it more or less slows to a trickle (like NY and NJ).

You can slow down or even stop the initial exponential growth for awhile if you lock down quickly and hard (like some countries have done), but it eventually it makes it's way back. Locking down does not stop it. It delays the inevitable unless you want to destroy yourself by locking down forever.

It can well be argued that delays help with hospitalization and ICU issues, buy us time for treatments and vaccines etc... That's all correct. But the standard thinking about this virus has been wrong.

There must be some combination immunity after infection, partial immunity/resistance in some people, or certain people that spread it more readily than others that makes the exponential growth and heard immunity math invalid. Exponential growth slows on it's own in the 10%-20% range and with any help from masks, distancing, and responsible behavior etc.. you can open up without huge impact long before the theory of herd immunity suggests. If you lock down and produce better numbers for awhile, be prepared to lock down for a long time and to self destruct because it's coming back once you open.