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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
1. I think it's very likely Hoppertunity will run a triple digit Beyer against better horses going shorter (which is not optimal) before the year is out just like he did to end his campaign in December (just 3 races and a few months ago) and show that on his good days he's still the same Hoppy.
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You're changing the goalposts now. You claimed originally that he was a 104-105 BSF horse and I simply pointed out that he's averaged a 98 BSF for the past 16 months. So if he happens to reach 100, your original assessment will be correct?
At any rate, if his performance in that San Antonio--4th in a 5-horse field behind runaway NY-bred allowance horse Giant Expectations--is indicative of the "real" Hoppertunity, I'm probably in good shape.
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2. I think it's very likely War Story will do the same (possibly even next time out) because he was prepped for the Brooklyn this year exactly as he was last year and looked good both times.
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War Story did not look good in the final 3/8s. He had to fight hard to wrest the lead from Outplay (someone ought to ask Repole why that horse coming out of 7f races was even in the race) on the far turn, swapped to his right lead
on the turn--never a good sign, and then had his head bent towards the rail through the stretch (probably was trying to lug out like Hard Study).
Besides, not sure a horse targets a $400K race by "prepping" in a $12 million race and a $1.2 million dollar race. Less a progression and more like a digression.
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3. I think Beyer is biased against making bigger figures for 12F because of his belief that modern horses can't run 12F. I think he is right in "general", but I saw nothing in the way that American Pharoah finished to lead me to believe he couldn't handle 12F. And to be honest, I didn't see anything in the way Justify, Gronk, Hofburg or VR finished that makes me think that about them either. I don't think this group is as good as Pharoah's group, but I don't think they are trash mid 90s allowance horses either.
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When you look at the rest of the days BSFs, the Brooklyn was not out of sorts. Met Mile winner Bee Jersey registered a 109 BSF going 8 furlongs and missing the NA record by 4/5s of a second; Phipps winner Abel Tasman earned a 100 BSF going 8.5 furlongs and missing the track mark by a little over 1 second; Hoppertunity got a 98 BSF going 12 furlongs while 4 seconds slower than the NA record.
The American Pharoah also-rans were inconsistent, if talented, to say the least. Frosted, Keen Ice, and Mubtaahij were essentially one-hit wonders in terms of Grade 1 performances thereafter, disappointing more often than not. Ironically, Made From Lucky, who was well beaten in the Belmont, matured into a decent stayer with multiple victories beyond 11 furlongs.
The Justify also-ran brigade seems loaded with talent, but I would question their longevity, especially if they aren't afforded an opportunity to progress with some time off and some class relief.
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Right now, Beyer has this crop as dreadful. CJ has them as strong. Thorograph hasn't published their Belmont figure yet, but in general they have them somewhere in between.
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The crop clearly had some talent going into the Triple Crown, the problem is that most of it has gone by the wayside in the past 5 weeks. On TFUS, Justify had separated himself in the SA Derby with only Bolt D'Oro and Audible and perhaps Good Magic in range to threaten him in the Classics.
Anyways, several key horses that hit the 120 TFUS mark in winning efforts have disappeared or have been deep fried: Bolt D'Oro, Solomini, Audible, McKenzie, and Promises Fulfilled. None of those--mercifully as it turns out-were in the Belmont, leaving Justify to take on some promising, but relatively unaccomplished, horses for his Triple Crown title.
Hopefully some on the sidelines return in full force, or others like Good Magic, Gronkowski, Ax Man, and Mendelssohn pick up the mantle.
