Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
Tx, Dave. By "outlandish lines" you mean too few total points, and thus the bookie has the best of it?
Also, I assume this works like any traditional sports-line, wherein price gets adjusted on the fly in attempting to equalize support for all contestants?
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TOO MANY TOTAL POINTS.
Look at an EqB chart.
For each betting interest, perform apply this equation:
Book% = 100 / (odds +1)
Thus,
#1 2.50 = 100/3.50 = 28.6
#2 3.60 = 100/4.60 = 21.7
Sum the Book% for all horses and you will get a number that represents THAT race - considering the track takeout on win bets.
Let's say that it adds to 126 points.
This number represents the "100% Line."
Thus, #1's 28.6 / 126 = 22.7% of the pool.
That means that he had 22.7% of the actual money wagered in the pool.
Do that for a handful of races AT THAT TRACK to deal with breakage and you have a real handle on the impact of takeout.
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So, imagine if you add up the bookmaker's line:
LOWER TOTAL POINTS = Higher return for the bettor
(i.e. lower takeout)
HIGHER TOTAL POINTS = lower return for the bettor
(i.e. higher takeout)
