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I put a lot of emphasis on a horse's ability run to par.
I am trying a new idea out on MSW races right now, using pars as an intrical part of it. Pars and figuring who will improve to the par range in the second start.
Focusing on 1st and 2nd time starters, idea mentioned by James Quinn in his last book.
I would be wary of some BRIS pars. Like at NYRA, the pars for Mistake Breds will be too high, I find. I am doing a study of them to see how reliable they really are, NYRA and GP only. I'll post my results later in the week, when I get enough done to use to compare.
I do find just have a good set of pars can tell you things about the class structure at a track. Some classes are really not better horses, just because the claiming price is higher.
At NYRA, MSW 3Up par is 91-93, and for 3yo, it is 89-91.
See how that lines up with the PPs listing for pars.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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