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Old 04-22-2018, 11:27 AM   #16
Robert Fischer
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
You just got a 98 on a Dream Trip...
I look at Beyers to guess a 'top' or 'peak'.

How fast can a horse run if he gets a good trip?

Justify (107, 104,101), Bolt d'Oro(102,101,103) earned their speed figures going all out, and didn't really show any flaws. Maybe Justify could have gone slightly better with a smoother lead-change, but that is getting too exact for the purpose. These were fairly reliable figures given the setting.

Magnum Moon ran a 98. He had an absolute DREAM TRIP. He probably ran about as fast as he could. The question comes in with whether faster fractions early (Arkansas was a moderate-slow pace setup) would have allowed him to run faster, or whether it would have hindered him(more energy early, maybe not saving ground into the far turn, when everyone else had to wheel wide...). I have a hard time 'upgrading' a dream trip, unless the horse has shown prior faster figures. Ran a 97 in the more fair Rebel Stakes.

Mendelssohn 106? - Who knows... Tough to make a figure halfway across the world. It's a rough estimate. Add a '?' to his peak. 86 in the BCJUVTRF

Good Magic ran a 95 in the Bluegrass and a 100 in the juvenile. He's in the same camp as Magnum Moon, although we know what GM will do if he's faced with adversity.

Vino Rosso showed his peak is about 98. He may however enjoy another furlong more than most which could add a '+' symbol to his peak.

Audible showed his peak is about 99. He will not get as good a setup in the derby so maybe you add a '-' symbol
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