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in the case of the "who did he beat" camp there is a long line of great horses who have accomplished a hell of a lot more who suffer from the "who did he beat" disease. Its a tough one to cure.
But your point is valid, many of these horses who are going to take a lot of money have not beat anyone yet, and provides ample reason enough to bet against them if you are subscribing to the "who did he beat" form of handicapping.
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