Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
"It doesn't matter if there are 2 horses or 20. There is the same amount of error."
A comment that boggles the mind.
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I hear you, but you're not explaining anything.
At least take a shot at stating why the total amount of error in a race can sum to something other than 1.
I will say it again:
In a match race where the betting public gives Horse AA a 60% chance of winning then they must give Horse BB and 40% chance of winning. It has to sum to 100% -- assuming they both finish the race.
If the people who think AA has a 60% of winning and it does win then they were 100% correct. Those who bet on BB were 0% correct.
In the long run, bettors on AA will be correct 60% of the time and bettors on BB will be correct 40% of the time. That means bettors on AA will be in error 40% of the time and bettors on BB will be in error 60% of the time. 100% of the time one of them will be right and one will be wrong.
The only time they will both be right is if all bettors who usually bet AA bet him and all bettors who bet on BB refrain from betting and AA wins.
In that case it can be said that AA bettors gave AA a 100% chance of winning and they were right. BB bettors gave BB a zero percent chance of winning and they were right. There is no betting error in this case.
