Good to see your posts Schag, you're correct with the largest bet goes on the smallest payoff.
Here's an example that hurt me last night, (trying to watch the Steelers and the board at the same time
)
Code:
Yonkers Race 10 2$ Exacta Probs at last chance to bet.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 62 273 100 179 194 621
2 18 50 12 26 28 123
3 317 161 219 471 232 817
4 36 10 80 54 41 174
5 140 50 241 89 133 542
6 100 37 155 57 112 242
7 737 305 993 494 941 438
Converting this grid to the probabilities of each possible outcome using the formula in OP
Assumes the pool is perfectly efficient, ignores breakage.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 0.028 0.006 0.017 0.009 0.008 0.003
2 0.114 0.035 0.200 0.073 0.067 0.013
3 0.005 0.010 0.007 0.003 0.007 0.002
4 0.050 0.267 0.021 0.032 0.043 0.009
5 0.012 0.035 0.007 0.019 0.012 0.003
6 0.017 0.048 0.011 0.030 0.015 0.007
7 0.002 0.005 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.004
My bet last night was a $12 Exacta 2/1,3,6 ($36)
so the numbers I'm interested in are the red ones the probs of 2-1, 2-3, 2-6
0.114 + 0.035 + 0.067 adds up to 0.216
and the fractions are 114/216 , 35/216 , 67/216
breaking the $36 down to,... $19 on the 2-1, $6 on the 2-3, and $11 on the 2-6
This time I got stung bad on 2-3 paying $49.80
Straight betting would return $299 Proportional returns $149
but so far the balance is in favor of betting different amounts on the underneath horses.
Best of Luck
