Congrats to those who had the winner. I only hit a DD saver and made nothing. The only reason I even hit a saver is because I made a change-up on my DD ticket when I was doing 'look aheads' and saw National Treasure was sitting very chilly at 10-1 for almost the entire betting cycle (final was 9-1 in doubles) I figured no significant team Baffert money was evident at those odds.
What I did right at that point was I cancelled my tickets and swapped in Archangelo as a saver, but what I did wrong was I pressed even harder on Forte at that point. I also didn't press on 'Up to the Mark' in the first leg of it even though his last race would crush that field and wow, he sure ran back to that. Even a tiny press with him and I'd have done ok, still not great but ok. What I would've scored with is the 5-3 DD (Soldier Rising) obviously would've been nice but that race wasn't even close
Like the Derby, drawing a line through Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice was again the correct play IMO. Forte should've been good enough here if he's 'right' and I don't think he is, the Florida Derby was a very slight regression, part of that was evident when Mage went right by him on the turn and yesterday literally everyone got separation from him on the turn, he was just spinning wheels and not able to push off. If it isn't the bruise then if he were mine I'd be looking for something else being wrong, you don't win 6 of 7 when you can't apply pressure to rivals approaching the quarter pole. Something is off. He does bring it in the stretch, absolutely doesn't give up, nice horse...
but I may be looking to bet against him from here on out until I see him take turns better.
Also very uncomfortable trip for Forte as far as the flow of the race went, I should've expected Hit Show to cause issues for Forte drawn outside of him, my bad there, that wasn't hard to see, if posts are reversed then Forte has a much more comfortable trip with options. Ended up with Forte being boxed and between horses a whole lot while sitting behind a very moderate pace. I saw the pace as moderate going in but expected Forte to be tracking in second or third behind National Treasure in a relatively clear first-flight with horses like Archangelo at least 3-4 lengths behind there, didn't work out, he was surrounded and ultimately shuffled way back. The only way it
may have worked out better is if Irad had sent out of there with the intent to be a clear second early and then Hit Show would've sat just off him maybe a length or two back, hindsight is 20/20.
