Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board


View Single Post
Old 03-10-2018, 02:58 AM   #252
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
Quote:
Originally Posted by DGroundhog View Post
The 35% win percentage has been a fairly constant stat for a number of years. I don't think it has dipped below 33% in a while. It may have. I don't track that stuff year to year.

It is the final odds. I don't know if anybody has tracked 2 MTP favorite stats or not, or if that has changed over the years with computer aided betting or not. It might be a valuable analysis.

A large number of bettors wait until less than 2 MTP. I understand why they do it, and the computer age may have influenced the stats significantly. I would presume so, but have no data to back it up. Sharps are gonna sharp. Hard to defend against that.

My best defense would be the 'random stop betting' thing or implementing some sort of restriction on large bets late an multiple small bets from a single source late. I don't have a cure all that would be acceptable to all, and as AE pointed out, hindering the 'whales' isn't something tracks are really keen on doing without currently - at least not without some sort of protection for them that is acceptable.

A LOT of people bet late. No frequent bettor can deny this. Whether it is whales or small timers. Everybody waits.
Why would late money be smarter (or more accurate) than other money.

My issue is more to do with disproportionate betting in the final minute and nothing to do with favorite or any price on the board.

A horse who is sitting at 12-1 on the board for all of the wagering that goes off at 6-1 at post when a ton of money comes through on him in the final click is concerning to me. Happens way, way, way too much for what would be logical to an average IQ person. The amount of time this late "rush" of money is accurate defies what is normal in betting historically.

Saying it another way, if favorites win 35% but I told you that the horse getting the most proportionate money in the final click is winning 45% of the time, would that concern you? (By proportionate I mean the overall percentage of money they have wagered on them in the final click).
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
 
» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:22 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.