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[TheOracle]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

10 races is not a "trend."

There will always be things we observe that appear to be a pattern. If you doubt that, go watch a roulette wheel for an hour.

The fact that things happened in an obvious pattern does not indicate that the pattern is statistically valid.

Distantly related, but a good read:

Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained)

Hey Dave,

I'm not trying to say the findings are statistically valid I'm just looking at the short term.

Just curious, how many races more or less would you need for a statistically valid trend?