Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board


Thread: JCap
View Single Post
Old 09-15-2020, 03:39 PM   #127
Jeff P
Registered User
 
Jeff P's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 3,742
Can you make any hay using the data?

Imo, yes.

But you have to know what you are doing.

I'll give you a simple example.

Hastings Park. It's a bullring.

Historically, at the 6.5f distance, when the surface is dry, horses that make the top going into the first turn tend to get the best of it. And off the pace runners trying to loop the field on the far turn tend to get the worst of it.

On the other hand, when the surface is wet, the way race outcomes are shaped is flipped.

Horses that make the top going into the first turn, and horses pressing a contested pace, tend to become exhausted about time they reach the midpoint on the far turn. At the same time, off the pace runners trying to loop the field on the far turn often get the best of it.

Over the past several meets, these effects are evident in the data.

Here's what I have in the database at HST at 6.5f when the surface is fast for horses that are rank=1 for JCapper Early Consensus that also have an Early HDW runstyle - with the data further broken out by calendar year:

Code:
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide

SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE RANKF19 = 1 
      AND RUNSTYLE < 15 
      AND TRACK = 'HST' 
      AND DIST = 1430 
      AND TKCOND = 'FT'
 
      AND [DATE] >= #04-22-2018# 
      AND [DATE] <= #09-10-2020# 
      ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals      626.90        566.00        537.40
Bet               -542.00       -542.00       -542.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L                 84.90         24.00         -4.60

Wins                   74           123           158
Plays                 271           271           271
PCT                 .2731         .4539         .5830

ROI                1.1566        1.0443        0.9915
Avg Mut              8.47          4.60          3.40
Code:
By: Calendar Year

Year         P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins   Plays     Pct     Impact     AvgMut
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018      -20.70     230.00     0.9100      32     115   .2783     1.0190       6.54  
2019       49.70     214.00     1.2322      30     107   .2804     1.0268       8.79  
2020       55.90      98.00     1.5704      12      49   .2449     0.8969      12.83  



Ending BankRoll:       $454.10
Starting BankRoll:     $300.00
High BankRoll:         $470.95
Low BankRoll:          $210.25
Longest Losing Streak: 13.00
Bet Percentage:        0.0175
Max Bet:               999999999.00

And this is what I have in the database at HST at 6.5f when the surface is other than fast for horses that are
JPR rank <= 3 that have an HDW runstyle other than Early - with the data further broken out by calendar year:

Code:
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide

SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE RANKJPR <= 3 
      AND NOT RUNSTYLE < 15 
      AND TRACK = 'HST' 
      AND DIST = 1430 
      AND NOT TKCOND='FT'
 
      AND [DATE] >= #04-22-2018# 
      AND [DATE] <= #09-10-2020# 
      ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals      404.80        311.30        313.10
Bet               -344.00       -344.00       -344.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L                 60.80        -32.70        -30.90

Wins                   44            73           103
Plays                 172           172           172
PCT                 .2558         .4244         .5988

ROI                1.1767        0.9049        0.9102
Avg Mut              9.20          4.26          3.04
Code:
By: Calendar Year

Year         P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins   Plays     Pct     Impact     AvgMut
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018       33.40     148.00     1.2257      20      74   .2703     1.0565       9.07  
2019       24.20     160.00     1.1513      20      80   .2500     0.9773       9.21  
2020        3.20      36.00     1.0889       4      18   .2222     0.8687       9.80  


Ending BankRoll:       $401.75
Starting BankRoll:     $300.00
High BankRoll:         $474.70
Low BankRoll:          $290.00
Longest Losing Streak: 11.00
Bet Percentage:        0.0175
Max Bet:               999999999.00
Imo, the best way to know what the prevailing patterns are is to make the effort - and look at the data.


-jp

.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com

Last edited by Jeff P; 09-15-2020 at 03:50 PM.
Jeff P is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
 
» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:26 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2020 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.