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Not So Fast
Except for Always Dreaming’s 1:47.47 victory in the 1-1/8M FL Derby the other major Derby preps might be written off as “clunkers.”
However, it was not too far in the past that Secretariat, one of the best ever, threw a 1:49 4/5 clunker in the Wood, his Derby prep and subsequently broke 3 track records in his next 3 starts in route to the Triple Crown.
I am not saying that there is a “Secretariat” among this year’s Derby hopefuls, but I am saying that final times are virtually meaningless as a single point estimate.
I have not run my model for the Derby, but I will and I think it will produce a Derby final time faster than the historical average final Derby time.
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Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
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