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Originally Posted by green80
Has anybody kept a running tab on these "ducks" to see if they win often enough to keep you in the + column? I see another job coming  |
It's not completely that simple--some tracks RARELY have any. Those are the best, in my experience. Some tracks have half-dozen a day---those are the ones to avoid--like the recent KD meet.
Ducks aplenty @ KD--lot's of longshots won, they just weren't "ours". My theory on that is you have horses coming from all over for those fat purses--Several races would have 2 or 3 at once. I tried to be very selective--use common sense.....didn't work for me there. I would bet one of two in a race---the OTHER one would win...stuff like that.
What I'm getting at---be a little suspicious if you see more than 1 or 2. And tracks like FLX or LRC, etc---that never have ANY...usually the DUCK will be a maiden race with little info on most of the starters. Sort of a "false duck"
What I know about LAST RACE PACE LINES, TOP POWER, etc...comes from looking at maybe 10K of these races, lined up in this manner. If you look at anything long enough--patterns emerge. Some are unprogrammable because the "pattern" is a series of unconscious events--that you know exactly what it is, but you simply can't put this "situation" onto software. Hell....you probably can't even write it down, perfectly.
I'd still be interested in an overall view of these plays---tomorrow is Friday--I'll post 'em up when I can.
I was thinking about the "100-race" testing....what does a good longshot player have for a strike rate? 5%? 10%? 15%? Probably somewhere in
there. It depends on our definition of what a "longshot" is. Mine is a payoff of $20+. If we averaged a $25.00 mutual--we need 8% to break even.
100 races...8 winners @ $25 = $200. Exactly what we wagered on those 100 races.
These wagers HAVE to be made after scratches--not sure why, but when the big scary favorite is scratched--and a DUCK is moved into the top spot, they seem to win more than their fair share. Happened today @ APX.
So I'll keep a record--won't be able to post them AFTER SCRATCHES sometimes...if not I'll just skip the day or skip that track, whatever. What gets posted will all be legit plays.
It will take a while to get to 100--
Let's see what happens--NCG
