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Old 06-23-2012, 12:02 PM   #46
classhandicapper
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve R
Or possibly none of those. Moonlight Cloud is a Group 1 winner in France and in top form coming off a facile Group 3 win three weeks ago giving weight to the field. She is rated 10 pounds below Black Caviar in 2012. That translates to three to four lengths at 6f. Maybe Black Caviar wasn't going to win by that far but she was clear near the end never having been touched by the whip when Nolan eased her. In a drive I believe she could have easily won by a couple of lengths. Tom Kerr of the Racing Post wrote "...she was heading for an easy victory after powering a length clear of front-runner Soul." The soft going may have played a role as she had never run on anything other than good or good to soft, but I don't think the travel, losing a step or what she defeated in Australia had anything to do with it. This was nearly a Shoemaker/Gallant Man Kentucky Derby moment but fortunately Nolan woke up at the last instant.
I think the rider made the finish unnecessarily close, but I don't think she was going to win by open lengths no matter what he did.

I don't have the handicapping sophistication to judge horses from England/Australia to know whether she ran sub par (for whatever reason) or whether that was the best she's got. But I sense this was not at her best because I assume Timeform has at least a decent line on cross border racing and her initial Timeform rating for today has already been estimated at way below her Aussie form.
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Last edited by classhandicapper; 06-23-2012 at 12:04 PM.
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