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Thread: In a Slump
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Old 07-27-2020, 07:34 AM   #9
Poindexter
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,994
A lot of good points in this thread. Without knowing what you do, it is hard for me to really read into what you consider a slump. I take on a lot of exotics in my personal play as well as win and exacta betting. Not only pick 4's and pick 5's but tri's and supers as well. When I was playing the thoroughbreds a couple years back I was also big on the super high 5 with the rolling carryovers. I just know I look at racing as a battle field. Not only are you taking on really sharp bettors, but you have to deal with the frustration of not really knowing what the true odds of most horses are until it is too late. Then you have maybe a minute or 2 to make an educated guess of what it is the right thing to do and start making your plays (even though after the race the final odds may paint a completely different picture, but nothing you can do about it). Moreover, in this battle field, I often find the biggest enemy is myself. Poor execution, poor concentration, betting too late (getting shut out of key wagers), betting too early (missing the late drop on a key horse who wasn't the value I thought he was), or flat out playing poorly (failing to hit an easy to find $280 superfecta).

Since I am now playing only harness racing I see race after race of usually over bet (subjective I guess if they win it is hard to say they were over bet) 2/5 shots winning. This also take it emotional toll. I would love to get to the point that I can execute the same whether I have 4 won races in a row and am up a $1000 for the night or have lost 6 races in a row and am down $600. Mainly because most of your opportunities are going to come when you are in the bruised and battered state of having lost multiple races in a row. If you let that bruised and battered state affect your psyche, your results will suffer.

As I do this more I realize that the key questions at the end of the day is did I handicap well and did I bet well (this is a far trickier question to answer and a lot harder to). If I can answer yes to both of those questions that will have me on my way to being successful at this game.

So the answer to the op's question is as best I can, I try to ignore "slumps". If I can day in and day out say I handicapped well and bet well, that is all I can do. Focus on these two things and let the rest work itself out. My handicapping I am pretty content with, the betting end is always work in progress. Rarely do I say I handicapped poorly (I am more guilty of missing individual horses that come back to bite me), but often I find myself very critical of my betting.

By the way if money becomes an issue, than you are either betting too much or you are below break even. It is always better to bet too little and grow a bankroll than to bet too much and destroy a bankroll. This is a long term game. Your long term results will be the sum of all wagers made. So good handicapping, good betting, good habits and good execution are key. Add a sensible and affordable bankroll and you are in business. The rest is just a random walk down horse racing lane.
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