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Old 04-28-2019, 04:13 PM   #29
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
who knew horseplaying and wisdom were a good match?

Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
One of the toughest ones for me is when I think the rail is dead and the horse I like has an inside post (and even worse if he's a speed horse).

I have to estimate how likely I am to be right about the rail, whether the jockey knows and will try to get off it, whether even if he tries the race development will allow it, and whether the other riders are so smart they get more aggressive just to pin him down there on purpose.

It's too hard to quantify all that.


Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
"I look at the price and if I think I am getting paid enough to take on extra risk I go for it and if not I pass. "


I like that

bobby fischer maxims; "--Incorporate an appropriate margin of safety- Only 'significantly' mispriced horses, not trivial close-calls, playing a long game, not a quick game. No emotions. Avoid stupidity. Capitalize on SIMPLE examples/opportunities of Mr. Market's stupidity/mistakes."
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

Last edited by Robert Fischer; 04-28-2019 at 04:16 PM.
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