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Old 02-12-2018, 10:54 PM   #19
CincyHorseplayer
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
2/10/18 Sam F Davis Stakes, 8.5F, Tampa Bay Downs

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20180210&RN=10

Timeform Figures 1/4-107 1/2-107 3/4-113 1m-119 Final Fig-121

Analysis - Flameaway: Ridden aggressively out of the gate to get the lead set a slow measured pace (blue fractions) and finished well to earn a solid final time, with a 118 final figure. Non Triple Crown nominated colt (trainer says was an oversight) surprised field off his avg turf form. Hard to be excited about his prospect though, maybe he is this good but just another easy front running 3yo I want to bet against next out.

Catholic Boy: I thought he ran a great race. I see many have been a bit critical because he did not go by the longshot front runner. He was wide on the slow pace first turn, not a big deal, but wide on the fast paced (turn time) far turn while passing horses is just not an ideal trip. Combine that with the fact this is a prep, not the end game, and to me this just feels exactly like a race I would want with a much bigger prize as an end game. There is this feeling anymore though when you lose you just must not be as good as people thought.

Vino Rosso: Similar to Catholic Boy I would not be too disappointed if I was his connections. Tough setup to overcome and he was finding it late. He did have a better trip than Catholic Boy. I also think he got little out of the last race crawl fest that he won in a jog, so he may have been a little short.

Hollywood Star: I dont know what to make of this horse, I have always been high on him but he really was very blah in this race, tough setup and all. Maybe he is better as a late running sprinter?


I could not find a full race replay on youtube.
Race Replay
https://youtu.be/bEsbcaKRw-s

There is a replay here, will update if one becomes available on Youtube.

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/sam-f-davis
I bet this race and would have gotten a 7-1 return no matter whose nose was in front but I was astonished how well this one ran. You go straight to the lead and hold off a well regarded horse prep or no prep and turf to dirt, you have done something. That was impressive. Good old fashioned blood and guts win. Bet against? I bet against all these 3yos when they turn 2-1 or less!
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