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Old 05-15-2020, 04:36 PM   #155
classhandicapper
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
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Some of the criteria for opening a region are pretty bad. A trend down in hospitalizations or deaths can be wildly favorable but if you have a single small 1 day blip up you have to start over to get to 14 straight days. I'd love know who the statistical wizard was that came up with that. At least use a 14 day moving average. There are going to be occasional random variations in things like this. As long as the trend is improving sharply a single day of data can be almost meaningless.
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