Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
In most cases when I hate the favorite in the race, I find that I lack the conviction needed in order to "crush the verticals" in that race. I can eliminate the favorite...but the rest of the field still remains a mystery to me, vertically speaking. In such cases, I will venture into the horizontals so I can reap some potential benefit due to my exclusion of the "bad favorite". I used to totally shun the horizontals for many years...but I now find that it behooves me to use all the betting weapons in my arsenal. Limiting our wagering options makes as much sense as dribbling a basketball with only one hand...IMO.
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The only problem with that is what do you say to yourself when the overbet favorite wins one of the other races in the sequence. It must not have been bad for us because it won or it wasn't the bad favorite we were thinking of in the sequence so in our mind it somehow doesn't weigh against our 'edge' in the other leg. Again I'm looking at this from the 10000 foot level. I certainly see how someone profits by betting on nothing but overlays to win. I'm not sure when we get into pick 6s, pick 9s or pick 12s that this overlay still carries forward blissfully. At what point does the value found in the one leg start to erode and eventually fall apart. I'd hesitate to say never is the right answer here.
