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[MJC922]

There's something to be said for carryovers but it seems to me the more races you tie into a sequence the more likely the natural underlays (which inevitably will win most of the other races) can drain the value out of the overlay.

Think of it like this, you love two horses on the card, you make them both precisely even money. One is 3-2 the other is 1/5, if you bet both equally and you're right about the even money piece of this then your bottom line is doomed longterm because you've given back your edge on the 1/5 shot.

Another thing we might want to keep in mind is even with zero takeout (on average) half the field will have odds estimates that are lower than their actual chances (underlays) to various degrees. When we look at 15-25 percent takeouts then it likely gets knocked down to maybe 1-2 true overlays per 8 horse field. I don't know how many of these we can identify and then string together in a sequence to boot, if you're extremely well-rounded I suppose it's possible, in theory.