Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I agree that some horse that a lot people are going to single is probably not going to add value. I was thinking more along the lines of singling a couple of 7/2 shots I would gladly make large win bets on because I hate the favorite.
You know your budget and your ability to handle losing streaks. IMO, if you can’t build a ticket that makes sense mathematically that you can handle financially and emotionally you should go into another pool.
Do yourself one favor and stop comparing PICK X payoffs to parlays. In a parlay you are putting massively more money through the windows. That’s why it pays less. The “take” on the PICK X is the “take” and it’s usually higher than WPS. That difference is how much extra people are losing overall on these exotics relative to WPS (on non carryover days). Other than the carryover, the only advantage of exotics is the leverage you can get from combining 2 value oriented opinions inside one pool into greater value.
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If I can get 7/2 shots win like say a 3/2 shot or even like a 2-1 I can print money betting. I don't need a pick 6. I am of the belief that is pretty much a fantasy in the days of whales and big rebates. My guess is most profitable bettors (sans rebates) are hitting 7/2 shots to the tune of maybe 25%. To hit both of them, in one card I would hit 1 of 16 times. then I have to hit the other 4 races I am now down to about a 5% hit rate on a pick 6. That means a much higher bankroll need and a much higher risk of financial ruin.
Moreover will I have these value horses on the carryover day and how will I know in advance of the race that they actually will offer value. Just because I love a I horse and think the public will give me 7/2 on him in the last race, doesn't mean he will not be bet down to 2-1. So much for that value single.
I have come to the conclusion that most heavily bet horses pretty much win as expected by the public. The fact that I choose to single them means they look very good to me and even though they are sans "value", the value I lose on them is overcome by the huge carryover, the huge amount of uninformed money in the pools and the way I play out the other 4 races. In the other 4 races I have no problem using 4-1 A's or 10-1 b's and 30-1 c's. These are the horses that if the right ones connect in the right sequence that bring home the large payoffs if I play correctly.
If you don't want to play pick sixes, don't play them. I love them. I dont like letting $17,000 ones slip away, but that is the game I play. If you don't play pick sixes, what I posted likely is not going to resonate with you anyhow. For those who do play pick sixes, they can do what they want. I just realized what I am personally doing wrong and thought I would share. I have played 100's of pick sixes over the years, probably a couple of 1000 pick 5's and pick 4's in harness racing in just the last 4 years or so I am not new to this. FWIW, I have made a lot of posts on this board, to my recollection don't think I have ever made a I've seen the light type post. In this case I really feel good about all this. I really feel like I went down a very wrong road, and I think I just found my way back home. Time will tell of course.
