Quote:
Originally posted by Jeff P
[snip]
Something interesting that I found was that in dirt sprints, at the tracks that I'm playing this year, the top Prime power horse, when drawn on the rail, wins better than 40% of its races and shows a positive roi. But when I tested this same idea against a sample taken from last year's races the results were horrible: 27 percent winners and a minus 20 percent roi.
Was it simple noise in my first sample? Or are other factors at work here? Perhaps there has been a rail bias at the the tracks I have been playing so far this year and I'm just now becoming aware of it. How would anybody apply regression analysis to THAT?
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Are you certain of the scientific consistency of the formulation of the Prime Power numbers you are using?
Also, are you using only fast tracks?
Are you comparing the same time of year? Comparing a summer surface to a winterized track could make your results invalid.
Have you done any comparisons concerning races coming out of chutes and races not coming out of chutes?
