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Jeff,
Well, I agree with you but Benter says it works in Hong Kong racing. Of course there are some huge differences between there an here. I've only tried it using just the winner and about all I can say is that it works better than linear regression. But, there's something that prevents any of these techniques from working really well. I guess the term would be lack of "robustness". Outliers affect all of these techniques a lot, and there seem to be a lot of outliers in horse racing data.
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"I might not give the answer that you want me to" - Fleetwood Mac
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