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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
What you seem to be arguing is that you are doing something that you think has more value that pace prediction (which is great). I put more energy into after race pace analysis and watching the races than pre race analysis because I think it has more value. But imo you are vastly overstating the case against being able to predict extreme and impactful paces. I have loads of data that prove it can be done and have done it successfully at the windows. I'm kind of private about picks, but CJ does it publicly in threads and on twitter all the time when it seems clear. There are tools on the market that demonstrate that it can be done well enough to add value.
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"(P)redict(ing) extreme and impactful paces" is not the issue. The issue is how accurately the pop methods of "pace analysis" enable one to divine the winner of upcoming races.
Almost everything works at one time or another. The trick is in not becoming overly enamored of a trivial number of instances, and avoiding mindless extrapolation of that trivial number of instances as being representative of (all or most of) the instances in a (much) larger population. Whether in "pace analysis" or any other aspect of handicapping horse races.
