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Originally Posted by thaskalos
What real proof is there to support the popular notion that the majority of these horses are "slaves" to their own particular (and predictable) "running styles"? Being the glutton for punishment that I am, I will regularly chance a wager at locales such as Portland Meadows, Prairie Meadows and Indiana Downs...where it is common to see the lowliest claimers refrain from setting the early pace, as they normally do...and yet they often manage to win the race quite nicely by charging from well back in the field. If the cheapest horses on the grounds can do it...couldn't it be that the better horses might be able to do this as well?
"Predicting" how the race is likely to unfold today is an endeavor with obvious limitations, IMO...and I doubt that it deserves the sort of attention that most handicappers give it.
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I'm going to essentially repeat myself in case you didn't read my previous response.
IMO, the idea is not to come up with some universally applicable formula or way of thinking and apply it to all races. It's to find situations where you are very likely to be right about the running styles, pace, and impact or where you at least know the probability you will be right so you can adjust your thinking on the values.
What works in a high quality 7F sprint in NY/CA may not work so well in a turf route at some second string track.
