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I normally don't endorse handicapping material but Stanley Caris' Analyzing the Triple Crown is a gem. This was Stanley's final fractions stats from 2012: If handicappers were to wager $2 on each of our 198 qualifiers [in the previous 40 Derby races] the total cost would be $396. Since the total return on our 27 winners comes to $558 the profit realized is $162. Since then, the system also hit on Orb and Chrome. The angle would average around five runners per year.
Sure, you could attempt to sift through these 5 horses (or in your words 6-8). For example, horses with conduit mares in tail female have won about the same number of Derby races during that time. Horses from family 1 or 23b have won 15 Derby races. Certain jockeys show up in the winner's circle more than others. Buckpasser-x has been discussed,... or whatever angle. Super Saver, I'll Have Another, Orb, and Chrome had several of these angles including the fractions. Perhaps those are the horses/years to double down. Time will tell if there is one or two of those multi-angle horses this year. Dubai Sky doesn't fit the "Big 5" prep angle but meets many of the others. We should be able to separate the solid contenders in two weeks.
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