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Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
Dubai Sky is on your list, did he crack the final fractions even tho he doesn't fit in your final 5 of big preps
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His final 1/8th was 13.28 and final 3/8 in 38.17. The cut off if 12.8 and 37.8. Dubai Sky would be very close but not quite there. That said, Dubai was running relatively quick early fractions which from my experience is not the norm for poly. I am therefore putting some stock in those final fractions.
The fast fractions in a "big 5" prep has a pretty strong impact value and has won the last three Derby races (and I believe 12 of 30 exactas). That said, it has only successfully picked 4 of the last 8 winners. Animal Kingdom, Mine That Bird, Big Brown, and Street Sense did not qualify. Mine That Bird was not even close but that horse did have one other betting angle (family 23b/conduit mare Broom Flower). Animal Kingdom ran a Spiral final 1/8th in 13.4. The horse did have family 1 going for it which has been hot in the Derby. Street Sense ran his final prep on the Keeneland poly. The final 1/8th in that rendition of the Blue Grass was run in a blistering 11.4s (albeit after pedestrian fractions typical of poly). The horse had already won the BC Juvenile on the CD surface in grand fashion and was a prime favorite. Every system needs an exception. I believe Big Brown narrowly missed the fast fractions indicator in the Florida Derby (13.0 versus 12.8 final 1/8th). Big Brown had a couple things going against him such as light prep schedule and the 20 hole but was a well deserved favorite in that seemingly weak class.
Back to Dubai Sky. Can he be the next Animal Kingdom? The horse is from the Raise A Native sire line which was red hot in the Derby prior to the last two years. He carries Buckpasser via Sex Appeal and carries conduit mare Nature in tail female. He also hails from family 23b which has averaged a Derby winner about every five years since Affirmed won in 1978. Should I make an exception to the "Big 5" prep fractions then Dubai Sky is the horse I'll make a decent wager on provided he works okay on the CD surface. I already have a minor wager with him in the previous "All Others" Future wager exacta box.
