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average win distance
A few years ago I looked over all Derby winners for a period of around 16 years with the brisnet past performances and discovered that the majority of Derby winners over that time frame showed a pattern where their sire's AWD was less than their damsire's (broodmare sire's) AWD and the majority had 7.3 or higher for their broodmare sire.
In pool 4 of the ky derby futures here are the only horses that fit the above pattern:
Horse---------Sire AWD-----------Broodmare Sire AWD
Amis Flatter-----6.9--------------------7.6
Dubai Sky-------6.9--------------------7.8
Far From Over--7.2--------------------8.2
Frosted----------7.4--------------------7.6
Madefromlucky-6.9--------------------7.6
Mubtaahij-------8.6--------------------8.8
War Story------6.7--------------------7.6
This does not mean you cannot win the roses if you do not fit the above pattern. All it means is that 10 of the last 16 Derby winners did fit this pattern.
A similar result occurs in the BC Classic with the above pattern.
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