Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
That is because the old style TV has always been flawed due to the methods used to create it, and the "improvement" made to consider distance didn't really help and may have actually hurt by limiting sample size. But, I don't think that is what the thread starter was talking about. I think he was talking about speed figures like Beyer, TimeformUS, Thorograph, etc.
Making a daily track variant is obviously the key part to speed figure making. Speed figures drive a substantial amount of the betting. There are races and days that are tougher than others for making figures for sure. That is good info to know and we do provide that at TimeformUS. Nobody else does that I'm aware of. So discounting or weighting speed figures differently makes sense in some cases.
That said, I don't see how not using a track variant is going to help. Sure, you can use raw times and get a few winners now and then, just like you can play birthdays or favorite colors. But you'll get buried long term IMO.
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CJ,
Perhaps I was unclear.
I am saying that, in order of best-to-worst are these methods:
- Track Par-Based Numbers with Hand-crafted race-by-race variants. (Assuming the hands are very competent.)
- Par-Based Numbers without ADV.
- Par-Base numbers with ADV.
- Raw times
Are we on the same page now?
Have I left anything out of that list?
