Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
True, the only way to know very late money is predicting it, but I'm not so sure that this late money is always so smart just because what we have seen appears to be true in a few high profile races. I've also seen cases where it wasn't so smart. Even if so, in addition we then must accurately predict what we think the odds should be and what the public will bet. Too few cases from disinterested 3rd parties to support this theory works at this point.
In addition, the very difficult process of predicting what the odds should be would be profitable on its own but could turn unprofitable if multiplied by the added difficulty of accurately predicting what the public will bet.
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It appears to me that it is much more likely to be true in the lower class races.
In fact, the high profile races (as you called them) are likely to run much closer to "the best horse wins."
Just my opinion and experience.
