Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
You make a good point. This method first assumes that late money is smart money. It then adds a further degree of uncertainty by trying to predict what this alleged smart money will be. At best it is no better than just betting late money but even less effective since it depends on predictions of this late money.
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The whale/smart money is being bet in the last minute before the race starts and isn't fully reflected in the pools when we're wagering, so there's no way to "just bet the late money" that doesn't involve predicting it.
