10-07-2018, 06:37 PM
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#18
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
Are you sure your success with this does not have more to do with how you determine what the public will do.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
This was the next race that came up on the day I was handicapping. (Sept 9)
In the upper section, marked in yellow, are the two horses that projected to be <3.49/1. (My definition of low odds.)
A logical question would be, "How do I handicap?"
The answer is that the system created 5 "objects" for me, each pushing the winners to the top but with slightly different sorts.
The handicapping object I selected was the one that most agreed with the object that was used to project the odds.
The two hit rates, 38% and 30.5% respectively, when multiplied by the payoffs projected by the odds, resulted in $nets of $1.73 and $1.78 respectively, for the two horses.
If either had been $1.90 or higher, they would have been "Play Against." As it is, they are just "close" to "BetAg."
We're hoping that with more effort we'll be able to expand downward a little more with some added conditions in the future, but right now we're sticking with the extremes. Down below I have show the running lines of the two horses in question. Both ran what I would call "dead races."
Notice the final odds off to the right.
The race ran 6-2, not that it matters. |
Awesome
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 10-07-2018 at 06:38 PM.
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