Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
She was fourth best and won because of a confluence of horrendous rides by other jockeys, as well as a bias that ultimately worked in her favor. If horses that are fourth best at 7:1 are your bag, she was a great bet.
I'm a fan of the TimeformUS product but wouldn't use her as a poster child for its value.
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Are you sure we're talking about the same horse? She was tied for the highest speed figure despite a wide trip and a high pace figure to offset the apparent rise in class. This was her 2nd lifetime race so there was a good chance she could run faster. I forgot to mention she had a trainer with an excellent win % of 29% with shippers and a bullet work (her best ever) that indicated that this was one of those races that was a go for this guy. She also had the early speed to clear the field and get to the rail, which she did. Only then did I look at the odds that at 7-1 were more than acceptable.
The whole process begins with the figures and then to look for signs that they will either be repeated, drop or rise. In this case, this was the whole enchilada of the horse with the best figures to begin with and several indications that they were going to get even better this day at a very generous price to boot.
