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Originally Posted by dilanesp
I agree that this was a taxing effort.
One thing about this situation, however, is that we already know that Reddam and O'Neill do not have Triple Crown fever. They pulled I'll Have Another out and did the right thing for the horse. So if you see them running in the Preakness, there's probably a somewhat greater likelihood than with other connections that the horse is 100 percent.
I'm likely to bet Collected if the track is fast and Exaggerator if it isn't.
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I beg to differ. Nyquist’s race in the Derby was on par with his current ability, and only further demonstrated its apparent will to Win. Other then following a rapid pace throughout on what most people believed to be a very fast racing surface, Nyquist had a clear run and didn’t experience any unusual racing abnormalities that would have caused additional effort and physical strain.
Beyond that I’m not sure how many people noticed the run-out after the finish line, but I certainly would have expected to see Exaggerator run right on by Nyquist based on its powerful closing move. Instead, we saw Nyquist continue on the lead with Exaggerator looking like the one who was losing energy from a arduous final run at the leader.
I also believe that Nyquist has a conditioning edge based on it’s racing schedule: Having established a solid foundation last year and then not returning to race for 3 ½ months this year. Then we have to consider having raced only twice before the Derby with 1 ½ months off between those 2 races and over a month off before the Derby. I think O’Neill has had brilliant strategy for getting this versatile horse through the rigors of a TC campaign.
Of course, anything can happen during the next 5 weeks that might interrupt or prevent Nyquist from achieving that goal. In the back of my mind I always reminisce about what happened to Spectacular Bid prior to the Belmont Stakes. If any horse could have been considered a lock to win the TC it might have been the “Bid”. Many believe as I do one that it was one of the Classiest animals to ever hit the race track and on par with all the great ones from the 70’s.
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