Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
Not looking to debate you on this subject and I do no disagree with your premise per se. it is just that implementing it is very hard imo. I remember when I was playing thoros about 5 years ago. I had made a horse 4-1 at Gulfstream and he was 18-1 at off. He was so dead on the board that I bet less than I should have. Horse ends up paying either 8 or 9-1 and wins. I bet less because he was dead on the board and then get paid half as much as the off odds. At 9-1 I would not have considered him dead.
One reason I stopped betting for the most part the last couple of years was based off what I posted in the thread I started called 4800 horse database. I found a lot of interesting stuff out in that study (it’s harness racing but so what) and posted a lot of it. My conclusion is that by the time the whales are done you need real rebates to beat this game. I knew that but it took me a lot of real life data to convince myself of the obvious. For me the exception is the pick 4 to pick 6 pools.
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With races like that, I really hope to find significant info from the will-pays.
I also am looking to the favorites and whether I can make a case for them being vulnerable (something is being over-bet if a 9/1 shot with some things to like is 18-1. The will-pays (if there is some) generally give the best info there.
I probably would have passed and felt it was a bad beat.
I agree on the 2nd paragraph. There are opportunities, but it's very slim pickings. You have to be really sharp and selective to grind out, and you have to do work on the p5s to hit a big one.
If you are a serious player, eventually have to look to move to rebated play yourself
