Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
its really beyond impossible for a regular day-to-day or weekend warrior to win these days at this game. in NYRA they are still giving you a fighting chance at the win pools. you cannot go up against the CAW and expect to come out of the war with your shoelaces left with all the tools these guys have. the irony of the whole situation is that there are some really good everyday handicappers that bet in a normal manner, the CAW doesn't really need handicappers, all they need is a good model and great tools.
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There are only three things necessary to show a profit. First, you need to be able to project the final odds within a tight enough tolerance. I've gone over how that is done repeatedly out here, what tools are needed? Excel, that's about it. Second you need to be able to look at those projected odds and find an overlay. That's a handicapping problem. Give yourself a 50% cushion on that so if the horse is 3-1 projected and you make him 2-1 then bet on it. Simple. Third, you need be able to manage a bankroll and not overbet your edge. Even with a positive flat bet ROI on these bets if you overbet the % of bankroll it leads to ruin. That's absolutely all you need to do, those three things. None of those three fundamentals have anything at all to do with these bogeymen, CAW, rebated players you name it.
The two other challenges are frequency of the overlays, so more good players in the pool = the final odds appear to be more accurate to you, meaning you will spot fewer of the 50% overlays on a day to day basis. Takeout also leads to fewer overlays, no doubt, a rebate can offset that to some extent. Those two things matter but they don't impact the fundamentals behind profit / loss. If we're doing all of the above and still losing that's a handicapping problem, tbh, we need to find a way to get better, that's all it is.
