Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922
With all due respect you've misunderstood entirely, whomever wins the first leg didn't impact those projected odds for race two whatsoever. I think you're thinking of will pays. I'm not using will pays, I'm using the full matrix like you are. Only you're not using the final matrix you're using an early matrix before all the money is in to interpret the odds for the current race, so with respect to projecting the next race that's even less useful. My intent is to know what the likely final odds will be for the next race so when I handicap it I know what odds I can most likely expect. For race two you'll be chasing the current matrix for race to which isn't final to try to get to the same answer I had 20 minutes ago. I'm not sure why but carry on.  |
Let's roll back to the Saturday Race 1 situation at Aqueduct for specifics.
In the Win Pool, Chief Engineer was 4-1 at the close ($10.20). However, when you calculate the amount of money bet on Chief Engineer as the lead runner on all Race 1 Double tickets, you will find that Chief Engineer's odds in that pool plunged to 2-1 (if calculated like a Win pool) during the interval of 120 seconds to post and 60 seconds to post. In other words, the CAW active pool saw an influx of cash on combinations starting with Chief Engineer.
If you believe that the CAW wagers are "smart" money, this would imply that Chief Engineer was a huge overlay at 4-1 in the Race 1 Win pool.
The only place I can use that information in real time is in the final minute of win wagering on Race 1. So, I am not interested in what happens with Race 2 at all. I am trying to use the CAW money coming into the Double pool as a flag to opportunities in the Race 1 Win pool.
