Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottJ
One final question that some might ask is "why would you want to do this work?" I am trying to quickly identify where the late CAW money might be getting played in the Double (or Exacta) pools which might have previously gone into the Win pool. Since that money can not be played in the final three minutes in the Win pool, the information provides me with a chance to use the CAW betting patterns to identify a potential wagering opportunity in the current race's Win pool.
In MJC922's example, we are looking at payoffs after the race of interest is run.
The Double probable payoffs heading into Race 2 are being used as a estimate for what the Race 2 Win payoffs might be. If these turn out to be "low" (underlays) across the board, this would imply that the winning Race 1 horse was played more heavily than you might expect ... but that race was already run so you cannot capitalize on the information.
The only way to capture that information is in the three minutes after the CAWs are locked out of the Win pool prior to that race's post time.
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With all due respect you've misunderstood entirely, whomever wins the first leg didn't impact those projected odds for race two whatsoever. I think you're thinking of will pays. I'm not using will pays, I'm using the full matrix like you are. Only you're not using the final matrix you're using an early matrix before all the money for race one is in to interpret the odds for the current race (race one), so with respect to projecting the next race that's even less useful. Think in terms of inverting that matrix. My intent is to know what the likely final odds will be for the next race (race two) so when I handicap it I know what odds I can most likely expect. For race two you'll be chasing the current matrix for race two during the wagering cycle to try to get to the same answer I had 20 minutes ago from the race one matrix. I'm not sure why but carry on.
