Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922
As a somewhat regular follower of the DD matrix for NYRA races I'm curious, are you talking about the first race or the second? by chance they were both 4-1 winners... my first thought was that's extremely rare for a NYRA race to be off by more than + or - one notch in odds, that's the typical range there. 2-1 vs 4-1 would be about four notches, that's a whole lot.... so much so that I wanted to look.
I came up with these odds for race 2 using the final DD probables matrix from race 1:
1- 6-5
2- 7-2
3- 17-1
4- 7-2
5- 3-1
6- 21-1
Ultimately the final win odds for race 2 were:
1- 7-5
2- 4-1
3- 32-1
4- 3-1
5- 2-1
6- 25-1
So of the horses that took money in race 2 the 5 horse Giramonte which ran out of the money was two notches away from the projected final odds. Someone probably just ran into some money and took it to the track, started firing away on the early races. It does happen sometimes. I doubt it was a whale. A whale would want to jump on everything else to even it out and take this sucker's money repeatedly rather than slam one horse IMO. I don't look at whales as smart money, tbh, they may reliably detect it better than most everyone else and then pile on but they aren't truly 'it'... the end result however is they might as well be it.  Race one itself I consider to be a special case anyway because there's no prior race matrix that's finalized to make projected odds from. |
My analysis is not based on Race 2's Daily Double potential payoffs compared to the Win pool. Instead, my analysis compares the rolling Double to be run (Race 1 into Race 2) compared to the Win pool for Race 1 all before post time for Race 1.
More technical detail follows as to how is this achieved. Take the total money in the Race 1 Double Pool at any point during the wagering and remove the takeout (16%). Now, take the odds from the NYRA Bets betting panel at that same snap point and determine the cash amount bet on each combination (using total/odds). Once this series of calculations is completed for each combination, add the totals for each lead horse - in other words, determine the amount bet on 1-all, 2-all, .... If you take that total and divide it into the Double Pool total (less takeout as above), you can get the actual odds of each horse in the Double Pool which can then be compared to the Win Pool.
Using this methodology, you will see that the actual Win odds on Chief Engineering in Saturday's opener was 4-1 while the Double odds were 2-1.
Now, this programming model is still evolving and has issues. First, I do not have an electronic (digital) feed available other than the HTML inside the NYRA Bets page. As a result, cut-and-paste (quickly) into my Calc Engine is critical - and can be error prone. Second, using the odds table provides only integer odds (without the decimal elements) which can impact the calculations, particularly in short-odds situations.
Long story short, I am merely trying to look at the full Double possible payouts to quantify where the CAW might be getting deployed in the final 3 minutes of wagering.
I hope that this was sufficiently clear.
