Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottJ
Take a close look at the first-half odds in the rolling Daily Double pools against the actual odds in the Win pools of the corresponding races. [This is done by reverse engineering the odds calculations based on the published Double probable payouts, the associated takeout and total pool size.] I have been modeling this for several weeks and you would be very surprised at the pricing differences. One of the more extreme examples from this last weekend took place in Aqueduct's opening race on Saturday where the winning horse was 2-1 in the Double pool, but paid 4-1 in the win pool.
The other data point is the rate of money flows into the pools [first derivative]. You will see that CAW money is not entering the Win pool early however the flow rates into the Double and Exacta pools does increase [second derivative] with less than 90 seconds until post time.
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As a somewhat regular follower of the DD matrix for NYRA races I'm curious, are you talking about the first race or the second? by chance they were both 4-1 winners... my first thought was that's extremely rare for a NYRA race to be off by more than + or - one notch in odds, that's the typical range there. 2-1 vs 4-1 would be about four notches, that's a whole lot.... so much so that I wanted to look.
I came up with these odds for race 2 using the final DD probables matrix from race 1:
1- 6-5
2- 7-2
3- 17-1
4- 7-2
5- 3-1
6- 21-1
Ultimately the final win odds for race 2 were:
1- 7-5
2- 4-1
3- 32-1
4- 3-1
5- 2-1
6- 25-1
So of the horses that took money in race 2 the 5 horse Giramonte which ran out of the money was two notches away from the projected final odds. Someone probably just ran into some money and took it to the track, started firing away on the early races. It does happen sometimes. I doubt it was a whale. A whale would want to jump on everything else to even it out and take this sucker's money repeatedly rather than slam one horse IMO. I don't look at whales as smart money, tbh, they may reliably detect it better than most everyone else and then pile on but they aren't truly 'it'... the end result however is they might as well be it.
Race one itself I consider to be a special case anyway because there's no prior race matrix that's finalized to make projected odds from.
