Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Of course, NYRA has not really kept their money out of the win pool.
What they've done is caused them to bet earlier.
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Take a close look at the first-half odds in the rolling Daily Double pools against the actual odds in the Win pools of the corresponding races. [This is done by reverse engineering the odds calculations based on the published Double probable payouts, the associated takeout and total pool size.] I have been modeling this for several weeks and you would be very surprised at the pricing differences. One of the more extreme examples from this last weekend took place in Aqueduct's opening race on Saturday where the winning horse was 2-1 in the Double pool, but paid 4-1 in the win pool.
The other data point is the rate of money flows into the pools [first derivative]. You will see that CAW money is not entering the Win pool early however the flow rates into the Double and Exacta pools does increase [second derivative] with less than 90 seconds until post time.
